Economists: Recession to end in third quarter - Denver Business Journal:

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The committee cited consumer spending stabilizingv in the first half of this allowing businesses to reduce costs and as well as reducing layoffs and investmenrtspending cutbacks. In combination with the stimulu s and an improvement in the financial it is likely the economy will expaned in the second half of the Bruce Kasman, committee chairman and chiegf economist for New York-based (NYSE: JPM), said the economy will return to growth, but not health. “Growth in the comingy quarters is likely to gathefr momentum but will not prove sufficiently robust to undo much of the severd damage done to our labor markets andpublivc finances,” Kasman said in a news release.
For the third the committee forecasts inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will returbn topositive growth, picking up to a more than 3 percenty pace by the second half of 2010. Tom Traynor, economics professo at , said the committee’s forecastx are in line with others that economistsz haveput together. He said most believe the recession will end either in the third quarter or fourt quarter ofthis year, with a few projecting it won’ t be until the first quarter of 2010. the committee is projecting an end tothe three-yea r downturn in the housing market, with housinh starts rising later this year and home valuew moving up modestly in 2010.
“Lowerf prices and low mortgagw rates have greatly improved the affordabilityof homes,” Kasman “A recovery in the housingy sector will be an important contributor to economic However, credit will remain tight and bank economists said jobs will continuw to be lost. Unemployment is expected to peak at 10 percent nationallhy and remain at orabove 9.5 percent through next year. Budget deficitsa are expected to remain wellabove $1 trillion this year and next The 13-member committee forecasts the 10-year Treasuryt bond yield will stay in the 3.75 percentt to 4.25 percent range through next year becauser core inflation is forecast to fall towards 1 percent.
However, the committee is concerneds about the rising trend in federal debt and the implications for inflatiomn riskbeyond 2010.