Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Business Courier of Cincinnati:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrightg State and author ofthe report, said unemployment increased will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirxd quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical whichincludes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thircd quarter. That would drop employmenf to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firsyt quarter of the year, a 2 perceng decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Daytom area has longrelied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturintg employment willfall substantially,” Traynor said.
Forecaste from the report show employment in the sector fallingfrom 42,3009 in the first quarter of this year to 36,100 by the thirf quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durablde goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the thirr quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstr quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servics employment, which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projecte to decrease to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the firstg quarter, a nearly 1 percent “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasanyt time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonalk employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first quarter, but that is 1,000o jobs fewer than the same time periodd last year. One area of employmenty that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthj care.
In fact, Traynof said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethird quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,30p0 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declind in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negative throughn the third quarter and maybde into the fourth quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomre positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becauss it is a lagging indicatorf ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said therr is a great deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impacg ofgovernment actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymen t is not going awayanytims soon.
“This is something we’r going to be liviny with for quitea while, well into next year,” he